A Spatial Model of Land Use Change for Western Oregon and Western Washington

Kline, Jeffrey D.; Alig, Ralph J. 2001. A spatial model of land use change for western Oregon and western Washington. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-528. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 24 p. We developed an empirical model describing the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed for residential, commercial, or industrial uses during a 30-year period, as a function of spatial socioeconomic variables, ownership, and geographic and physical land characteristics. The empirical model is based on a conceptual framework of landowners maximizing the present value of the future stream of net returns derived from various land uses. The empirical model is used to compute indices representing 50-year projections of future land use and timberland area change in western Oregon and western Washington for the Resource Planning Act assessment, and to identify counties in the study region where potential reductions in timberland area could be greatest. Results suggest that conversion of forest and farmland to urban uses will most likely occur on lands closer to existing population centers, and rate of conversion will increase with the size of those population centers. Relatively modest reductions in the area of timberland due to conversion to urban uses are projected for western Oregon and western Washington, with the greatest reductions occurring on nonindustrial private forest land.